Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in several recent polls, though her edge has shown fluctuations in recent weeks. An ABC/Ipsos poll released Sunday shows Harris ahead by four points, 51%-47%, up slightly from 50%-48% in early October (margin of error 2.5), while a CBS/YouGov survey has her at 50%-49%, a slight drop from her 51%-48% lead in mid-October (margin of error 2.6).
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An Emerson College Poll conducted October 23-24 found the two candidates tied at 49%, marking the first time since August that Harris hasn’t led in this weekly poll. The Times/Siena poll also shows a deadlock at 48% among likely voters, reflecting a dip for Harris from a 49%-46% lead in early October, with The Times noting this result is a concerning trend for Harris, given recent Democratic wins in the popular vote despite losses in the Electoral College.
Other polls present a mix of outcomes: A CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 3.1) shows the candidates tied at 47%, a shift from Harris’s slight lead in September. Trump has edged ahead in a CNBC survey (48%-46%) and a Wall Street Journal poll (47%-45%)—both representing slight gains for Trump since August.
Trump also leads in a HarrisX/Forbes poll by two points (51%-49%) among likely voters, or by one point (49%-48%) without leaners. Conversely, Monmouth University’s poll (October 17-21) has Harris up by three points, 47%-44%, among respondents who said they’d vote, and an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters shows her with a 49%-46% lead (margin of error 3) in a scenario with third-party options.
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Morning Consult’s weekly poll, released Tuesday, gives Harris a four-point lead, 50%-46%, consistent with last week’s numbers but down from her 51%-45% advantage seen earlier in October. Since entering the race on July 21, Harris erased Trump’s lead over President Biden, peaking with a 3.7-point advantage in late August, though her margin has since slightly declined, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
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